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Five things Zimbabwean applicants should know about Australia’s net overseas migration debate

News · 2026-08-26 · 4 min read

Australian politicians quote NOM, short for net overseas migration, more than almost any other number. If you are in Harare, Bulawayo or Mutare and thinking about a move, five points will help you read the debate sensibly.

First, it measures stayers, not visas

NOM is the number of people arriving who remain at least a year, minus those leaving to settle abroad. A 12/16-month rule applies: someone counts if they spend 12 months in Australia within any 16-month window, even with breaks. A student who takes a month at home and returns still counts.

Second, citizens are in the total

The figure includes returning Australian citizens and permanent residents, plus New Zealanders relocating across the Tasman. They move largely without visas and are very hard for government to steer through visa rules. Diplomats and their families are excluded. Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) workers, who can come for stints as short as a few months, may or may not be counted, depending only on placement length.

Third, the number keeps surprising forecasters

NOM was about 301,000 for the year to December 2025, down from around 556,000 in 2023, but higher than official projections. The government’s forecasters expect 225,000 by 2027–28, yet earlier forecasts undershot. Look at the sources in 2024–25 in the table below.

Working holiday arrangements do not cover Zimbabwean passport holders, so that figure is context only.

This matters for readers because one reason the number is hard to steer is that much of it has little to do with the visas that skilled applicants use. A government can change a visa rule next month, but it cannot tell its own citizens to stay home or stop New Zealanders from crossing the Tasman. That is why politicians turn to the visa streams they can control.

Fourth, every party promises lower, but differently

One Nation says 130,000, though its own messaging wavered when a newer MP suggested a real number nearer 225,000 once PALM workers and aged care nurses were included. It targets graduate visas, student numbers and the skilled list. The Coalition has not fixed a number, links any cap to housing construction and has floated under 200,000; one senator suggested 180,000 for working holiday, student and select skilled visas, which others rejected because regional employers need seasonal labour. Labor has adopted 225,000 by 2028 and stresses enforcement: temporary visa holders leaving on time, and slower processing for working holiday and skilled applications. Our guide to the argument that the debate is aimed at the wrong target gives another view.

None of the three positions is a policy that has been put into law. They are campaign promises and working targets, and each carries qualifications that the party itself has already softened or corrected. Read them as signals about which visas might be touched first, not as dates on which anything will change.

Fifth, categories matter more than totals

Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list are under scrutiny. That means processing times, eligibility criteria and caps in those streams are more likely to shift than family reunion or humanitarian intake. Treat announced targets as a direction of travel, not a promise, and watch the detail as it is released, not the rhetoric. A look at choosing a state may help you plan.

Common mistakes Zimbabwean applicants make

• Taking a headline target as a promise.
• Assuming that a ZIMSEC result or HEXCO certificate equals an Australian licence, assessment or registration.
• Applying without advice from a migration agent on the MARA register, or a licensed immigration adviser for New Zealand.
• Holding off on documents such as a police clearance from the Criminal Record Office where one is requested.

A professional CV from Build AI CV and our job listings give you a practical start.

Frequently asked questions

Does NOM only count new migrants?

No, it also includes returning citizens and New Zealanders.

Who is excluded?

Diplomats and their families.

Which group is largest?

International students, at about 157,000 in 2024–25.

Where do the parties differ?

On the figure: 130,000, under 200,000 or 225,000 by 2028.

What should I do now?

Prepare documents and follow detailed policy announcements.

Key takeaways

• NOM is a stayer count with a 12/16-month rule.
• Returning citizens and New Zealanders are part of it.
• The latest figure is roughly 301,000, against a high of around 556,000.
• Parties differ on the target.
• Focus on visa categories under scrutiny.

#net overseas migration #australia migration debate #zimbabwe #visa categories #five things