Care jobs and an ageing Australia: what the long-term forecast could mean for Zimbabwean workers

News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read

A Zimbabwean care worker walks beside an older man in a sunlit garden overlooking Sydney Harbour Bridge.

Anyone in Harare or Bulawayo thinking about care, nursing or support work abroad should know what Australia's long-term report says about it. Covered in late September, the report describes a country whose older population will grow fast while fewer people of working age support it. Here is the plain-English version.

The ageing curve

By the 2060s more Australians will die each year than are born. The fertility assumption has been revised down from 1.62 children per woman in 2023 to just 1.34 by 2065-66. Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea show where such trends can lead, with economies shrinking under their age pyramids. Australia is expected to avoid that largely because of net overseas migration, assumed at 235,000 people a year for four decades.

Care work in the numbers

Sector named in the report	Why it grows	Link to migration
Aged care	The population over 65 nearly doubles	Historically reliant on migrant labour
Disability support (NDIS)	Care economy expands	Direct care workers often come from abroad
Health	The over-85 group nearly triples	Broader health workforce draws on migration

If this demand materialises as projected, skilled and semi-skilled pathways into care occupations are likely to become an increasingly central part of Australia's visa settings. That is a likelihood, not a promise.

What Zimbabweans should prepare

Show your training. ZIMSEC passes, HEXCO certificates and nursing or caring qualifications should be kept as certified copies.
Expect assessment. A Zimbabwean qualification never automatically equals an Australian registration, licence or skills assessment, and employers add their own rules.
Prepare police clearance from the Criminal Record Office only when a visa or employer requests it.
Write a CV that names real duties and results. Build AI CV helps with structure.
Speak to a migration agent on the MARA register about Australia, or a licensed immigration adviser for New Zealand.

The economic side matters too. The optimistic figures, an economy twice the size by 2065-66, real incomes 55% higher and unemployment near 4.25%, all rest on that intake assumption. The median age of a migrant is 26 against 38 for residents, which is why working-age growth depends on arrivals. Our related posts, what the forecasts mean for migrants and the argument for more workers, add context, and our jobs page lists roles.

Reading the political side honestly

There is a collision worth understanding. The report assumes 235,000 net arrivals a year, while opposition parties have campaigned on cutting intake well below that figure. Both cannot hold at once. If the cut wins, the ageing curve steepens faster than the comfortable projections assume, and health and aged care costs press earlier on a smaller tax base. For you, that means the long-run demand for care workers looks solid, but the route into the country may tighten or loosen with each election.

So keep two tracks running at once. On the first, build your evidence: certified copies, employer letters, and a record of the shifts, clients or patients you have handled. On the second, watch official announcements and ignore rumour. When an advert states that sponsorship may be considered or names a visa subclass, treat that wording as the only reliable statement about the role.

Common mistakes with care-sector news

Assuming growth in the sector means every applicant is accepted.
Overlooking that opposition parties want intake well below the assumption.
Trusting an unregistered person with your documents or money.
Waiting for the next headline rather than preparing evidence of your experience.

Frequently asked questions

Why does the report mention the NDIS?

Disability support is one of the sectors expected to expand with health and aged care.

Is 39.3 million a target?

It is the projected population, not a target, and it depends on the intake settings holding.

Are the over-85 numbers large?

The report says the over-85 cohort nearly triples, which drives demand for care.

Can I rely on the 4.25% unemployment figure?

Treat it as a projection that shares the migration assumption with the rest.

How should I begin?

Start with documents and a clear CV, then read the requirements of each role carefully.

Key takeaways

Care demand rises as over-65s nearly double and over-85s nearly triple.
235,000 net arrivals a year underpin the outlook.
Political risk is the intake level, not the demand for care.
Verify every requirement for the role you want.

#australia care economy #zimbabwe #aged care #disability support #ageing report